Last week, I wrote about the cracks forming in the food system — all the steps food takes to get from the field, pasture or orchard onto our plates. In May, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned of a possible “severe global food price crisis” within the next six to 12 months.
Oil, weather and inflation have food in a vise grip. Synthetic fertilizer is in short supply, and about half the world’s food is grown with it. Farmers, ranchers and orchardists are finding it more difficult to grow and raise food because of a severe El Niño. Wheat and cattle production are at their lowest levels in decades. As if all that isn’t enough, we are also in a long-term inflationary cycle.
So, what does the future hold? I can use common sense to speculate, but it’s impossible to know what prices, shortages, weather and markets will do. We don’t know whether the coming changes will be rapid or slow. Learning how to calmly and intelligently move through uncertainty will certainly be a useful skill as “this thing” unfolds.
We may move from a food system that produces bountiful excess to one that wastes less and produces just enough. Personally, I don’t think that would be such a bad thing.
Foods imported from faraway places might become less plentiful or financially out of reach, especially out-of-season summer fruits that are always available through a global logistics machine. We may move toward a more seasonal, community-oriented way of eating and away from anonymous, faceless, industrially produced food.
Our definition of convenience may change from “Everything is always available at the store” to “Our community knows how to get what we need.” People may connect more with their neighbors, suppliers, growers and local food resources.
I’ve been thinking about how to help people manage a period of high food inflation or shortages with creative solutions and see opportunities rather than trouble. I’m writing a book titled “The Pantry Method” to help readers find alternative ways to source, buy and store food. I’ll share excerpts as it nears completion.
I hope all this news doesn’t make you want to hide in a bunker and surround yourself with cans of beans! In many ways, it’s an exciting and transformative time. Humans are remarkably adaptive and resourceful creatures. I’m sure we’ll rise to the occasion and use a severe global food price crisis to build a better mousetrap.
And who knows? It might even have better cheese.